A Quebec strategy for Stephen Harper
Adam Daifallah
National Post
Wednesday, February 23, 2005
MONTREAL - Jack Pickersgill, the legendary Liberal cabinet minister, once observed that the Tories are like the mumps -- you get them once in a lifetime. Twenty-seven years separated R.B. Bennett's 1930 win and John Diefenbaker's first government; another 21 elapsed between The Chief's second victory and Joe Clark's short-lived minority in 1979. It has now been more than 16 years since the election of Brian Mulroney's second majority, and no signs of an impending Conservative government are to be found.There are plenty of reasons why today's Conservatives are floundering, and some aren't their fault. The economy is strong, most importantly, and taking out an incumbent regime in good times is difficult. But even if a recession hit us tomorrow, the Conservatives still wouldn't win the next election. The reason? Quebec.
As has generally been the case since Wilfrid Laurier, la belle province is a Tory wasteland. In the months following June's federal election, Conservative leader Stephen Harper has done his best to remedy that. He has increased the number of Quebecers in his office, for instance. An unelected staffer has been appointed Quebec caucus chair. The Tory leader has made frequent visits to the province. More questions are being asked in French in the House of Commons. In March, the Tories are holding their national convention in Montreal. Harper has also made some bold policy pronouncements aimed at raising his visibility in Quebec -- chief among them his much-lambasted suggestion of federal reform along the lines of the Belgian model.
But despite all this, the new Conservatives remain stalled. A major problem is that Quebecers continue to see federal politics as a federalist v. sovereignist dichotomy. That means voting for the Liberals if you want to stay in Canada and for the Bloc Quebecois if you don't. (In the last election, many non-separatist Quebecers angry with the Liberals voted Bloc, failing to see the Conservatives as a viable alternative.) Only when that reality changes will a critical mass of Quebec voters take a serious look at the Tories.Or maybe not. Quebecers rarely vote for federal leaders from outside Quebec. Non-Quebecer Tory leaders have won majorities, but usually when the other contenders were non-Quebecers as well. Hence, R.B. Bennett defeated Mackenzie King in 1930, Diefenbaker trounced Pearson in 1958.
The continued presence of the Bloc guarantees a Quebec leader on the ballot in every election. That's a problem for Harper, and it may be insurmountable. Still, there are some steps he could take to give his party at least a toehold in the province.
First, Harper must do a better job reaching out to the Quebec activists the party already has -- especially supporters of his leadership rivals. Belinda Stronach won more than 60% of the Quebec votes in the last leadership contest, yet many of her organizers are sitting on their hands, biding their time until Harper quits. The same goes for many of the players from the Mulroney era. The Tories need to mobilize these people.
Second, the Conservatives must focus on raiding talent from Quebec's provincial parties. Both the Action democratique du Quebec (ADQ) and the Quebec Liberal Party held conventions in recent months. I attended both. Some Tory party staffers were in attendance, but not a single Conservative MP, let alone Harper, was at either.They should have been there. Many provincial activists are homeless federally: The Liberals are more nationalist than their federal cousins and are warm to the Conservative view of decentralization. (Let us not forget that their leader, Jean Charest, once headed the old federal PC Party.) Same for the nationalistic, fiscally conservative ADQ.
Third, Harper must find a high-profile Quebec lieutenant to support him. ADQ leader Mario Dumont has often been mentioned, but it's clear his heart is at the provincial level. Someone else must be found. This person should become "associate leader" of the Conservative party and act as its primary voice in Quebec. The Tories have done well in Quebec with "outside" help in the past. Robert Borden won with the support of Quebec nationalist Henri Bourassa. Bennett had the help of Quebec Conservative party leader Arthur Sauve. Diefenbaker had the backing of then-premier Maurice Duplessis. Robert Bourassa's blessing on free trade helped Mulroney in 1988.
Fourth, the Conservative national convention in March must adopt policies to directly appeal to Quebecers. Among the possibilities: a crystal-clear position on decentralization and provincial rights, a laissez-faire attitude on social issues and a willingness to champion pro-environmental causes such as green energy. None of these requires moving to the left or watering down conservative principles. It just means appealing more directly to Quebec with creative policies. Lastly, Harper must do more to improve his personal image in the province. As a friend told me recently, a good start would be moving to Quebec City for the summer. That would show Quebecers how serious he is about winning them over.
Adam Daifallah is a Sauvé Scholar at McGill University, and a member of the editorial board of the National Post.
© National Post 2005
