Back to Quebec's bleu roots

Alain Dubuc
National Post

Friday, January 20, 2006

Before the winter holidays, two political scenarios in Quebec delighted sovereigntists and aroused panic among federalists. But a few weeks later, nothing remains of those fine theories.

The first scenario was that the Bloc Quebecois would pick up more than 50% of the Quebec votes in this federal election, reaching a magical threshold. This sweep would be the first of three steps in a glorious march to sovereignty, opening the way to a victory of the Parti Quebecois in the coming provincial election, and then quickly on to a winning referendum.

The second scenario was a Conservative victory that would put in power a government cut off from Quebec, creating a crisis situation of the kind that sovereigntists dream about.

That was then. We now know that none of that will happen. The Bloc may gain a few seats thanks to federalist vote-splitting, but it will not make the 50% mark in the general vote, and may actually lose some support. Meanwhile, the blue wave that is rolling over Canada is touching Quebec, albeit on a smaller scale. Though it started by hurting the Liberals, the Bloc Quebecois is suffering, too. That shows that a large number of Quebecers do not regard Stephen Harper as a menace.

What is the explanation for this Conservative success? Three phenomena are at work.

The first factor is the sovereigntist bubble. Sovereigntism is an important force in Quebec, but for three years it has been artificially inflated. The Bloc's support is considerably greater than the strength of sovereigntism because the party has benefited from the wind blowing against the federal Liberals, attracting both soft nationalists and disillusioned Liberals. That support is extremely fragile, so it did not take much to prick the bubble.

There is a message here for the Parti Quebecois, too, which went all-out to help the Bloc. Its current popularity is due less to a change in Quebecers' convictions than to the unpopularity of both the Ottawa and Quebec City Liberals. The momentum sovereigntist strategists fantasize about is just not there.

The second phenomenon is that this campaign has reawoken a bleu current. Urban analysts forget this deep political reality: a strong conservative nationalist current, often rural, the heir of the Union Nationale, which Brian Mulroney mobilized in 1984, and which appeared in the glory days of the Action democratique du Quebec (ADQ). These bleus are deserting the Liberals and the Bloc; a good example is the support of the ADQ leader, Mario Dumont, for Stephen Harper.

The third phenomenon is Stephen Harper's concept of federalism, his recognition of a fiscal imbalance with the provinces and promise to eliminate it, his respect for the provinces' jurisdictions and his openness to their international role. Quebecers think this is a commitment to Quebec, but in fact it is a view he wants to apply to all the provinces.

Mr. Harper's articulation of his vision of Canada has ended the Liberals' monopoly on national unity by proposing a credible alternative. And it has made the Conservatives a national party that can put down roots everywhere.

Stephen Harper's victory can't be compared to the beau risque of Rene Levesque, who gave his support to Brian Mulroney because Mr. Mulroney wanted to make offers to Quebec and restore Canadian constitutional collegiality. But Mr. Harper's provincialist concept of Canada, which comes out of the Alberta tradition, is close to Quebecers' -- close enough to be a basis to work from, enticing Quebecers -- most of whom still want to stay in a Canada that is capable of renewal. This promises more productive relations between Ottawa and Jean Charest's provincial government.

Surprisingly, Stephen Harper's origins, which people often see as a handicap, can be an advantage. If he wins on Monday, he will be the first anglophone prime minister of Canada from an anglophone province since Lester B. Pearson almost 40 years ago (except for the cameo appearances of Joe Clark, John Turner and Kim Campbell).

This is healthy for a democracy and could facilitate franker and more fruitful dealings between Canada and Quebec.