Boisclair worried Harper might win

Josée Legault
The Gazette (Montreal)

Friday, January 20, 2006

Two weeks ago on Radio-Canada, I said the election of a Conservative government would prompt the resurgence of what I called "nationalist-autonomist" federalists who could take on the sovereignist option, and even come together in some kind of informal coalition.

The minute I got home, a good friend called to tell me that I'd lost my marbles.

Yesterday, he called to apologize. When he saw the worried look on André Boisclair's face, he conceded that if Harper becomes prime minister, the political dynamic in Quebec would change.

So why did the usually discreet Boisclair come out to call on Quebecers to resist Harper's "siren song"? Why did he paint the Tory leader as dangerous?

It's not for the Bloc Québécois's sake. Given the Bloc's track record a strong opposition party, Gilles Duceppe's argument that Quehecers need a good counterweight is one many still seem to agree with.

Unless there's a dramatic turnaround - anything's possible in this campaign - the Bloc will do well. The Tories will definitely win seats, but the Bloc could take a few Liberal strongholds of its own. It's the Liberals, who are falling off the radar in Quebec.

What worries Boisclair is an other kind of threat. On Rad-Can, I predicted Harper's "open federalism," his promise to solve the fiscal imbalance and give Quebec more international representation, would be well received by soft nationalists who make up at least 20 per cent of Quebec voters.

Polls show even some harder line federalists, put off by Liberal scandals, are ready to vote Conservative.

We'll see how many seats this will actually translate into on Monday. But the growing support and interest Harper is getting shows there's still a market for a non-sovereignist, but autonomist approach to federalism.

Although Harper's "open federalism" stops way short of any special status for Quebec, this is the first time since the failure of the Meech and Charlottetown accords that Quebecers have been offered a decentralist approach by a federal party that could form the government.

This is piquing the interest of soft nationalists, a growing number of whom chose sovereignty during 12 years of a hardline, Liberal regime. Boisclair worries about Harper moving in on that turf.

The PQ leader said he thought Harper was just as dangerous as Paul Martin for Quebec. But, what he was probably thinking is that Harper could be even more dangerous than Martin.

But that "danger" wouldn't be "to Quebec" as much as it would shake the near certainty that many Péquistes have of winning the next election and ensuing referendum.

If Harper does start to address the fiscal imbalance and strikes a co-operative alliance with Jean Charest that delivers goods for Quebec, chances are soft nationalists will pay attention.

Charest has been preparing for this, just in case, by gathering the support of some prominent nationalists who are much closer to the nationalist-autonomist school than that of outright separation.

Charest the premier many see as a federalist pur et dur, has, nevertheless, garnered the support of former PQ premier Pierre-Marc Johnson against a third referendum. Even Lucien Bouchard has publicly supported a number of Charest's positions.

As for Mario Dumont, his party has adopted - guess what? - a federalist platform on precisely that : Quebec autonomy within Canada. If Harper becomes prime minister, this means autonomists will finally have someone they can talk to in Ottawa.

The next year will tell whether or not this would be enough to help Charest's electoral fortunes against a PQ that promises a referendum. But on a longer range, Harper is betting his wooing of soft nationalists will at least decrease support for sovereignty.

Which brings us back to Boisclair. When he spoke, he seemed unprepared for what might be coming and stuck with his party's own strategic choices. After all, what would Boisclair say if Harper starts remedying the fiscal imbalance that the PQ turned into its main plank more than five years ago?

What would the PQ say after voting with Liberals and the ADQ on motions demanding Ottawa redresses the imbalance? Will it sulk while the other two parties applaud?

What will the PQ say when the premier of Quebec, himself a former Conservative-leader and the prime minister get along like ham and eggs?

For almost 15 years, the nationalist-autonomist vision has remained dormant for lack of an interested interlocutor in Ottawa. Harper's challenge in Québec is to reawaken it by giving soft nationalists something to seek their teeth into.

That's why on Monday night, the new PQ leader might be hoping that Harper, somehow, won't make it to 24 Sussex Dr.

But if Harper does, Boisclair will have his work cut out for him.